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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Aravaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Dominic · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 9 games
33%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 8 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%

Team Arava

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Max · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 3 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Zayac · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 192 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 447 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 451 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
260 picks · 214 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
249 picks · 407 bans
55%
Morphling
Morphling
249 picks · 456 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
243 picks · 414 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 448 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Arava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:16
StoRm 56%Team Arava 44%
The model gave 56% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterDominic
58% · 45 games48% · 42 games
Queen of PainAskold
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
57% · 56 games43% · 54 games
DawnbreakerBlizzy
Dawnbreaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
51% · 78 games43% · 60 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
52% · 24 games49% · 47 games
LichMax
Lich
Game 2prediction missed16:38
StoRm 51%Team Arava 49%
The model gave 51% on StoRm — the game was taken by Team Arava in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDominic
45% · 62 games59% · 89 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
47% · 318 games51% · 84 games
Dark SeerBlizzy
Dark Seer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
48% · 44 games44% · 155 games
DoomZayac
Doom
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
40% · 29 games64% · 125 games
Nature's ProphetMax
Nature's Prophet
Game 3prediction correct33:12
StoRm 52%Team Arava 48%
The model gave 52% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDominic
50% · 116 games50% · 205 games
Storm SpiritAskold
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
48% · 176 games55% · 120 games
Dark SeerBlizzy
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
47% · 27 games46% · 61 game
Vengeful SpiritMax
Vengeful Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
49% · 115 games55% · 48 games
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 56%
Series resultStoRm 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3