Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Clubloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rostik999 Clubwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Stray Club
No games played over 6 months.
Rostik999 Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
555 picks · 343 bans
Phoenix
475 picks · 566 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 235 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 513 bans
Puck
321 picks · 852 bans
Beastmaster
316 picks · 796 bans
Jakiro
310 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Stray Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Rostik999 Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Stray Club 39%Rostik999 Club 61%
The model gave 61% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Game 2prediction missed
Stray Club 39%Rostik999 Club 61%
The model gave 61% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Stray Club.
Game 3prediction correct
Stray Club 39%Rostik999 Club 61%
The model gave 61% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteRostik999 Club · 61%
Series resultRostik999 Club 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3