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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rostikfacekid Clubloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VooDooSh Clubwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rostikfacekid Club

Dazzle
Dazzle
by_Owl · 4 games
75%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage
Koma` · 3 games
100%
Oracle
Oracle
by_Owl · 3 games
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
Koma` · 2 games
100%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
avice · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudge
blindzone · 2 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rostikfacekid · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
avice · 2 games
100%

VooDooSh Club

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
VooDooSh · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
Cake · 3 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Cake · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Limitless · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
chambi · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razor
Shigetsu · 2 games
100%
Sven
Sven
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 283 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 131 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 453 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
304 picks · 124 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 288 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
275 picks · 238 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 362 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Rostikfacekid Club
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% VooDooSh Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:37
Rostikfacekid Club 49%VooDooSh Club 51%
The model gave 51% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKoma`
46% · 109 games60% · 78 games
Drow RangerShigetsu
Drow Ranger
Omniknight
Omniknightblindzone
46% · 36 games53% · 160 games
TimbersawLimitless
Timbersaw
Pangolier
Pangolieravice
48% · 214 games52% · 265 games
Puckchambi
Puck
Rubick
Rubickrostikfacekid
49% · 168 games55% · 33 games
Ogre MagiVooDooSh
Ogre Magi
Lich
Lichby_Owl
40% · 80 games52% · 71 game
Shadow ShamanCake
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed41:23
Rostikfacekid Club 47%VooDooSh Club 53%
The model gave 53% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by Rostikfacekid Club in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKoma`
51% · 71 game47% · 312 games
Snapfirechambi
Snapfire
Kunkka
Kunkkablindzone
46% · 49 gameslittle data
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Chaos Knight
Techies
Techiesavice
51% · 135 games47% · 21 game
Legion CommanderLimitless
Legion Commander
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorby_Owl
51% · 28 games51% · 160 games
LionVooDooSh
Lion
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrostikfacekid
52% · 537 games51% · 327 games
RubickCake
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct18:45
Rostikfacekid Club 49%VooDooSh Club 51%
The model gave 51% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKoma`
47% · 45 games45% · 86 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritavice
49% · 68 games50% · 235 games
Pangolierchambi
Pangolier
Axe
Axeblindzone
51% · 196 games41% · 41 game
KunkkaLimitless
Kunkka
Rubick
Rubickrostikfacekid
53% · 207 games53% · 113 games
Shadow DemonCake
Shadow Demon
Oracle
Oracleby_Owl
39% · 16 games57% · 57 games
Shadow ShamanVooDooSh
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVooDooSh Club · 53%
Series resultVooDooSh Club 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3