?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Chen
Chenoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Tobi · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
527 picks · 859 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 377 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 587 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 800 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 571 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:27
strongboys 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on strongboys — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightLowskill
49% · 38 games59% · 42 games
Juggernautselfhate
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
47% · 130 games50% · 69 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChodΣX
50% · 149 games52% · 133 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Largo
LargoPonlo
71% · 3 games47% · 81 game
EnchantressVaniLLl
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTobi
52% · 206 games46% · 201 game
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct36:26
strongboys 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonLowskill
52% · 372 games44% · 319 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
54% · 156 games41% · 302 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterChodΣX
52% · 235 games47% · 210 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
56% · 255 games50% · 388 games
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderTobi
53% · 344 games50% · 143 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct32:12
strongboys 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLowskill
47% · 312 games50% · 119 games
Shadow Fiendselfhate
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
50% · 123 games52% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciChodΣX
54% · 232 games47% · 173 games
Slardaryoung G
Slardar
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
50% · 203 games53% · 50 games
MiranaVaniLLl
Mirana
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTobi
50% · 57 games49% · 351 game
Tuskvelheor
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 57%
Series resultstrongboys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3