EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDucksquadloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Delight · 6 games
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
monodrama · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Ducksquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
486 picks · 332 bans
Bane
351 picks · 455 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 533 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 490 bans
Shadow Fiend
315 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 318 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 205 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% summer bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% summer bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
summer bear 65%Ducksquad 35%
The model gave 65% on summer bear — the game was taken by summer bear.
Game 2prediction correct
summer bear 65%Ducksquad 35%
The model gave 65% on summer bear — the game was taken by summer bear.
Model check result
Model favoritesummer bear · 65%
Series resultsummer bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2