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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Summit Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 7 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
TrazaM · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nj · 5 games
60%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 12 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Nevermine · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 449 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
420 picks · 900 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 577 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 373 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 197 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 572 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:19
Summit Gaming 47%Polaris Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMercury
49% · 166 games45% · 111 games
JuggernautNatsumi
Juggernaut
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUnknown-
46% · 167 games42% · 60 games
ZeusMac
Zeus
Mars
MarsNj
56% · 334 games54% · 259 games
Death ProphetForce
Death Prophet
Mirana
Miranaczy
57% · 188 games45% · 391 game
TinyBoomy
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockTrazaM
56% · 77 games49% · 111 games
ViperEyyou
Viper
Game 2prediction correct37:50
Summit Gaming 46%Polaris Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUnknown-
45% · 123 games56% · 265 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Zeus
ZeusMercury
51% · 81 game49% · 107 games
ViperMac
Viper
Mars
MarsNj
53% · 318 games42% · 136 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Windranger
Windrangerczy
57% · 94 games50% · 68 games
BrewmasterEyyou
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockTrazaM
50% · 55 games50% · 95 games
Shadow ShamanBoomy
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct10:42
Summit Gaming 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 20:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMercury
46% · 265 games45% · 261 game
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackUnknown-
50% · 56 games53% · 224 games
PuckMac
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNj
45% · 226 games55% · 58 games
NecrophosForce
Necrophos
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritczy
52% · 92 games54% · 59 games
UndyingBoomy
Undying
Zeus
ZeusTrazaM
52% · 87 games54% · 124 games
Shadow DemonEyyou
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3