Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 12 games
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 7 games
Iosignature
Tino- · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 976 bans
Void Spirit
424 picks · 588 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 688 bans
Mars
351 picks · 600 bans
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 180 bans
Grimstroke
275 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
275 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:23
T1 37%Omega Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 51:25.
Game 2prediction correct20:28
T1 37%Omega Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 42:26.
Game 3prediction correct4:32
T1 37%Omega Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 28:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 63%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3