Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 11 games
Tiny
Mac · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mac · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
551 picks · 464 bans
Mars
438 picks · 687 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 537 bans
Bane
398 picks · 276 bans
Puck
359 picks · 828 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 573 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 663 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
T1 44%Polaris Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 31:04.
Game 2prediction correct16:36
T1 44%Polaris Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 33:57.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 56%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2