ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
413 picks · 197 bans
Mars
389 picks · 583 bans
Puck
381 picks · 886 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 331 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 230 bans
Centaur Warrunner
283 picks · 386 bans
Ancient Apparition
265 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:17
T1 41%Quincy Crew 59%
The model gave 59% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 41:13.
Game 2prediction correct12:20
T1 41%Quincy Crew 59%
The model gave 59% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 43:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 59%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2