IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Таиландwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Болгарияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Таиланд
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 3 games
Tiny
Fearless · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
KNP · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
boombell · 2 games
Rubick
boombell · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
368 picks · 592 bans
Tiny
330 picks · 235 bans
Undying
304 picks · 537 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 155 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 286 bans
Enigma
206 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Таиланд
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Таиланд
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Таиланд 56%Болгария 44%
The model gave 56% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Таиланд.
Game 2prediction correct
Таиланд 56%Болгария 44%
The model gave 56% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Таиланд.
Model check result
Model favoriteТаиланд · 56%
Series resultТаиланд 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2