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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TaiLung Mafiawin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TaiLung Mafia

No games played over 6 months.

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 10 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
463 picks · 236 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
457 picks · 440 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 947 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
303 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 225 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 670 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
287 picks · 648 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% HunterZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% TaiLung Mafia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
TaiLung Mafia 64%HunterZ 36%
The model gave 64% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 38:17.
Game 2prediction missed15:32
TaiLung Mafia 64%HunterZ 36%
The model gave 64% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by HunterZ in 41:18.
Game 3prediction correct35:34
TaiLung Mafia 64%HunterZ 36%
The model gave 64% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 1:08:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTaiLung Mafia · 64%
Series resultTaiLung Mafia 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3