Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
Tinysignature
Q · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 13 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
774 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
549 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
415 picks · 649 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 286 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 709 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total83% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:17
Talon Esports 83%Blacklist International 17%
The model gave 83% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:18.
Game 2prediction correct19:21
Talon Esports 83%Blacklist International 17%
The model gave 83% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:15.
Game 3prediction correct37:16
Talon Esports 83%Blacklist International 17%
The model gave 83% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 45:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 83%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3