Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Rubick
Q · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 456 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 980 bans
Undying
396 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 923 bans
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total71% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Talon Esports 71%Blacklist International 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:36.
Game 2prediction correct38:33
Talon Esports 71%Blacklist International 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 54:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 71%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2