Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Rubick
Q · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 7 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
DuBu · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
Tiny
PlayHard · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
DuBu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1037 bans
Doom
402 picks · 672 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 982 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:30
Talon Esports 68%Bleed Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker23savage
TerrorbladeJaCkky
BeastmasterJabz
Doomiceiceice
AlchemistMikoto
DisruptorDJ
WindrangerQ
SilencerDuBu
PugnaOli
Game 2prediction missed27:36
Talon Esports 67%Bleed Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa23savage
Naga SirenJaCkky
PangolierMikoto
Magnusiceiceice
Legion CommanderJabz
Elder TitanDJ
TechiesQ
SilencerDuBu
DisruptorOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 81%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2