FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Phoenix
Kuku · 16 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 13 games
Snipersignature
Jhocam · 13 games
BOOM Esports
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
486 picks · 643 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 524 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
356 picks · 401 bans
Muerta
342 picks · 261 bans
Invoker
333 picks · 913 bans
Beastmaster
327 picks · 675 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Talon Esports 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperMikoto
Shadow FiendJaCkky
TinyNatsumi
BeastmasterFbz
DoomWs
EarthshakerMac
LichKuku
HoodwinkTims
TuskJhocam
Naga SirenJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Talon Esports 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Dragon KnightJaCkky
TerrorbladeWs
LinaMac
InvokerMikoto
PangolierFbz
LionJhocam
MuertaTims
ClockwerkKuku
Shadow DemonJaunuel
Game 3prediction missed52:64
Talon Esports 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:52:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
PangolierMac
Sand KingWs
TerrorbladeJaCkky
SniperMikoto
MagnusFbz
ClockwerkJhocam
PhoenixJaunuel
BatriderKuku
LionTims
Game 4prediction correct20:14
Talon Esports 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Ember SpiritMac
Dragon KnightMikoto
Monkey KingJaCkky
TimbersawWs
DawnbreakerFbz
PhoenixKuku
ChenJaunuel
LionJhocam
HoodwinkTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4