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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kuku · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
78%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 16 games
69%

BOOM Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
459 picks · 373 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 540 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 484 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 194 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
364 picks · 588 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 399 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 586 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
341 picks · 857 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Talon Esports 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
44% · 116 games51% · 183 games
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
51% · 132 games55% · 392 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusNatsumi
48% · 208 games50% · 57 games
Night StalkerFbz
Night Stalker
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
49% · 256 games49% · 162 games
TerrorbladeTims
Terrorblade
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
51% · 252 games52% · 170 games
PugnaJaunuel
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Talon Esports 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
48% · 355 games46% · 104 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
44% · 90 games47% · 204 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
49% · 159 games51% · 150 games
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
54% · 351 game54% · 352 games
BatriderTims
Batrider
Lich
LichKuku
53% · 97 games54% · 242 games
LionJaunuel
Lion
Game 3prediction correct35:10
Talon Esports 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
47% · 284 games53% · 33 games
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperMikoto
50% · 113 games58% · 173 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
44% · 95 games51% · 146 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Undying
UndyingKuku
44% · 55 games52% · 319 games
BatriderTims
Batrider
Tusk
TuskJhocam
48% · 226 games52% · 102 games
LichJaunuel
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3