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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 22 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 19 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 14 games
29%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
404 picks · 367 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 881 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
306 picks · 354 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 245 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 806 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 691 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Talon Esports 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
55% · 152 games43% · 124 games
SvenPalos
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonWs
48% · 118 games45% · 197 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
50% · 199 games60% · 246 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
53% · 119 games51% · 110 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Disruptor
DisruptorQ
44% · 103 games50% · 14 games
Witch Doctorcml
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct21:7
Talon Esports 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
47% · 300 games49% · 189 games
SvenPalos
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
46% · 341 game57% · 362 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsWs
46% · 244 games50% · 253 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerQ
50% · 119 games49% · 183 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
55% · 150 games52% · 167 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 69%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2