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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
36%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
38%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
89%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 438 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
275 picks · 412 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 444 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
230 picks · 211 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 214 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 642 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 122 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
218 picks · 311 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:14
Talon Esports 41%Geek Fam 59%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
46% · 66 games52% · 86 games
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWs
41% · 22 games54% · 55 games
Bounty HunterMac
Bounty Hunter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCHYuan
53% · 37 games55% · 81 game
Vengeful SpiritJing
Vengeful Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressPonyo
49% · 87 games34% · 15 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
48% · 25 games
Game 2prediction correct12:35
Talon Esports 41%Geek Fam 59%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAkashi
49% · 87 games48% · 269 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusWs
54% · 193 games45% · 556 games
RubickMac
Rubick
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCHYuan
50% · 479 games53% · 266 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
44% · 228 games56% · 243 games
ClockwerkSkem
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressPonyo
50% · 347 games
Game 3prediction correct7:32
Talon Esports 42%Geek Fam 58%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
51% · 82 games47% · 97 games
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey KingCHYuan
61% · 63 games47% · 113 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsWs
50% · 44 games44% · 97 games
HoodwinkJing
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressJhocam
53% · 100 games44% · 22 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
58% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 67%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3