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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 12 games
50%

IHC Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
423 · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
423 · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Se · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnus
eleven · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
ace12 · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
193 picks · 80 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
189 picks · 213 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
162 picks · 219 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
159 picks · 255 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Talon Esports 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWs
49% · 59 games48% · 48 games
Muerta423
Muerta
Spectre
SpectreAkashi
53% · 51 game43% · 41 game
Brewmastereleven
Brewmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYowe
51% · 81 game51% · 63 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJhocam
49% · 80 games41% · 61 game
Phoenixace12
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPonyo
54% · 36 games57% · 94 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct35:13
Talon Esports 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAkashi
48% · 112 games51% · 101 game
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
51% · 110 games44% · 54 games
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarYowe
63% · 4 games48% · 19 games
Axeeleven
Axe
Weaver
WeaverPonyo
53% · 20 games54% · 45 games
Muertaace12
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorJhocam
55% · 130 games45% · 157 games
SilencerSe
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2