The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Bane
Hyde · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
713 picks · 562 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 658 bans
Marci
494 picks · 792 bans
Puck
487 picks · 1022 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 159 bans
Razor
301 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:26
Talon Esports 76%Lilgun 24%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:28.
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Talon Esports 76%Lilgun 24%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 76%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2