?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 9 games
67%

Neon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
254 picks · 427 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 350 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 519 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
Talon Esports 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAkashi
65% · 104 games45% · 163 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Viper
ViperCHYuan
49% · 25 games46% · 84 games
MarsJG
Mars
Magnus
MagnusWs
55% · 157 games45% · 180 games
TechiesBombi
Techies
Jakiro
JakiroPonyo
54% · 32 games
Lion
LionJhocam
48% · 109 games
Game 2prediction missed7:31
Talon Esports 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAkashi
55% · 79 games53% · 211 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCHYuan
48% · 80 games48% · 17 games
Night StalkerJG
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsWs
37% · 51 game49% · 165 games
Keeper of the LightBombi
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesJhocam
50% · 157 games
Warlock
WarlockPonyo
55% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2