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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
64%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
631 picks · 465 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 422 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 918 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 404 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
Talon Esports 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by OG in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
52% · 144 games47% · 76 games
AlchemistYuragi
Alchemist
Slark
Slark23savage
51% · 80 games41% · 74 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
49% · 63 games46% · 301 game
Tinybzm
Tiny
Chen
ChenOli
59% · 95 games52% · 50 games
TechiesTaiga
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageQ
56% · 119 games
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Talon Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by OG in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMikoto
53% · 43 games38% · 77 games
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
59% · 174 games49% · 156 games
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Omniknight
Omniknight23savage
66% · 16 games48% · 143 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressQ
46% · 135 games57% · 75 games
IoTaiga
Io
Silencer
SilencerOli
45% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2