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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Q · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 8 games
63%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
86%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 16 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
608 picks · 465 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 928 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 596 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 185 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
344 picks · 391 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
323 picks · 200 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 589 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:22
Talon Esports 55%Polaris Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
44% · 134 games53% · 108 games
JuggernautNatsumi
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
44% · 269 games52% · 207 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Visage
Visagekpii
54% · 92 games56% · 158 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciQ
47% · 156 games50% · 351 game
TinyBoomy
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireHyde
46% · 273 games54% · 100 games
Winter WyvernEyyou
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed36:45
Talon Esports 50%Polaris Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 59:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
50% · 83 games52% · 267 games
Keeper of the LightMac
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
45% · 139 games55% · 234 games
Chaos KnightNatsumi
Chaos Knight
Mars
Marskpii
45% · 251 game57% · 170 games
DoomForce
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressHyde
44% · 121 game57% · 80 games
WarlockEyyou
Warlock
Tiny
TinyQ
48% · 307 games48% · 150 games
MarciBoomy
Marci
Game 3prediction correct23:11
Talon Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
49% · 50 games50% · 208 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
43% · 230 games51% · 128 games
Chaos KnightNatsumi
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkpii
50% · 268 games57% · 90 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Rubick
RubickQ
52% · 190 games51% · 316 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHyde
49% · 190 games50% · 186 games
Shadow DemonEyyou
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3