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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Bane
Hyde · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 15 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
54%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
710 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
495 picks · 779 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
475 picks · 1002 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 419 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 398 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
312 picks · 154 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
297 picks · 560 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Talon Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:06:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 134 games45% · 92 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
45% · 80 games47% · 111 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Undying
Undyingkpii
48% · 79 games56% · 118 games
BatriderMac
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
53% · 65 games58% · 11 games
Primal BeastBoomy
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHyde
54% · 51 game50% · 77 games
PhoenixEyyou
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Talon Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
54% · 53 games56% · 23 games
Lone DruidNatsumi
Lone Druid
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
53% · 114 games50% · 201 game
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Marci
Marcikpii
48% · 51 game55% · 17 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Dazzle
DazzleHyde
44% · 30 games49% · 117 games
DoomBoomy
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQ
48% · 140 games46% · 30 games
LichEyyou
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2