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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 12 games
58%

Salvation Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
14%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
LOyd · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 678 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 194 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 541 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 422 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 579 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
348 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 641 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 843 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Talon Esports 69%Salvation Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAkashi
43% · 141 game49% · 61 game
UrsaYoungGodLevi
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
52% · 121 game49% · 58 games
Queen of PainWonder'boy
Queen of Pain
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWs
49% · 110 games51% · 69 games
SlardarRupido
Slardar
Monkey King
Monkey KingJhocam
48% · 58 games51% · 157 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
54% · 88 games54% · 173 games
TinyLOyd
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct24:17
Talon Esports 70%Salvation Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMikoto
54% · 148 games53% · 156 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
45% · 118 games51% · 83 games
Troll WarlordYoungGodLevi
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
49% · 93 games47% · 238 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPonyo
49% · 231 game50% · 162 games
SnapfireDric~
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJhocam
43% · 91 game62% · 42 games
PudgeLOyd
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2