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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Q · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 13 games
54%
Visage
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
23savage · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MidOne · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 341 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
328 picks · 325 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
255 picks · 251 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
247 picks · 189 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
198 picks · 142 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 104 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
175 picks · 493 bans
53%
Silencer
Silencer
169 picks · 187 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:19
Talon Esports 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
51% · 146 games49% · 193 games
Monkey KingMoon
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
51% · 270 games50% · 69 games
Ancient ApparitionMidOne
Ancient Apparition
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJabz
51% · 268 games50% · 240 games
RubickAhFu
Rubick
Tusk
TuskQ
48% · 278 games50% · 591 game
TinyBoomy
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorOli
52% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct45:9
Talon Esports 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJabz
62% · 53 games41% · 84 games
ZeusMoon
Zeus
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
57% · 152 games45% · 289 games
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
52% · 230 games45% · 125 games
Keeper of the LightBoomy
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaQ
51% · 171 game52% · 133 games
Treant ProtectorAhFu
Treant Protector
Riki
RikiOli
49% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2