?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 32 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 28 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 26 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 22 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 19 games
47%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 34 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 807 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 297 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 815 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 650 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 860 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
387 picks · 1017 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
384 picks · 351 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 519 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Talon Esports 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
54% · 127 games47% · 155 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
55% · 207 games44% · 187 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWs
59% · 22 games49% · 139 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
49% · 356 games51% · 276 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
49% · 63 games47% · 18 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Talon Esports 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
48% · 166 games52% · 257 games
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
53% · 265 games49% · 188 games
BristlebackCollapse
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 171 game57% · 194 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
46% · 69 games47% · 206 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
49% · 261 game44% · 87 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2