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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 709 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
630 picks · 464 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 425 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 912 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 366 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1098 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Talon Esports 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger23savage
35% · 74 games54% · 157 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Doom
DoomJabz
54% · 157 games48% · 84 games
AlchemistNine
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
56% · 133 games52% · 70 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Pudge
PudgeQ
50% · 85 games48% · 255 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenOli
48% · 159 games50% · 42 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct18:20
Talon Esports 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith King23savage
49% · 69 games45% · 265 games
Doom33
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracMikoto
57% · 158 games49% · 156 games
SlarkSkiter
Slark
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerJabz
61% · 103 games42% · 90 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickQ
54% · 405 games47% · 283 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenOli
51% · 175 games43% · 116 games
TechiesSaksa
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2