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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 9 games
100%

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 681 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 642 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 323 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 831 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 459 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 591 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:19
Talon Esports 68%Yangon Galacticos 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAkashi
53% · 30 games47% · 213 games
MorphlingKsh
Morphling
Razor
RazorCHYuan
57% · 45 games43% · 73 games
LinaYoung PH
Lina
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
62% · 31 game
Rubick
RubickJhocam
54% · 134 games
Disruptor
DisruptorPonyo
49% · 46 games
Game 2prediction correct36:13
Talon Esports 67%Yangon Galacticos 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAkashi
39% · 53 games54% · 187 games
TerrorbladeKsh
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
49% · 36 games56% · 122 games
MagnusYoung PH
Magnus
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWs
39% · 74 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
43% · 43 games
Pugna
PugnaPonyo
56% · 103 games
Game 3prediction correct42:20
Talon Esports 66%Yangon Galacticos 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAkashi
49% · 39 games60% · 54 games
WeaverKsh
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
53% · 28 games45% · 163 games
MarsYoung PH
Mars
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
49% · 42 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
60% · 21 game
Lion
LionJhocam
43% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 78%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3