The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTtamsmeloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
tamsme
No games played over 6 months.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 737 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 640 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 408 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 755 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% tamsme
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
tamsme 17%Dandelions 83%
The model gave 83% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Dandelions in 31:41.
Game 2prediction missed49:44
tamsme 17%Dandelions 83%
The model gave 83% on Dandelions — the game was taken by tamsme in 43:13.
Game 3prediction correct9:44
tamsme 17%Dandelions 83%
The model gave 83% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Dandelions in 23:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 83%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3