Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Arkloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Plan Bwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Ark
No games played over 6 months.
Plan B
Juggernautoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Linaoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
BurNIng · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 246 bans
Marci
317 picks · 554 bans
Undying
284 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 289 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Team Ark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Ark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Ark 56%Plan B 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Ark — the game was taken by Plan B.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Ark · 56%
Series resultPlan B 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1