PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 12 games
Razorsignature
Ori · 10 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
680 picks · 486 bans
Puck
476 picks · 976 bans
Dawnbreaker
389 picks · 493 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 191 bans
Marci
353 picks · 672 bans
Mars
333 picks · 551 bans
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 420 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
Team Aster 60%beastcoast 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:13.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Team Aster 60%beastcoast 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by beastcoast in 30:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2