Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Banesignature
Fantasy · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 21 game
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
510 picks · 450 bans
Mars
493 picks · 692 bans
Bane
458 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 537 bans
Sand King
399 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 635 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 625 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Team Aster 54%Dandelion Esport Club 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 23:47.
Game 2prediction correct24:4
Team Aster 54%Dandelion Esport Club 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 54%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2