i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 19 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 12 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 992 bans
Mars
347 picks · 571 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 523 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 350 bans
Lion
324 picks · 176 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 699 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Aster 58%Invictus Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:53.
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Team Aster 58%Invictus Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2