SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 23 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Linaoften banned
Ori · 14 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
547 picks · 375 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 572 bans
Mars
450 picks · 616 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 809 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 171 bans
Kunkka
343 picks · 544 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
Wraith King
283 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total63% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Team Aster 63%Invictus Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:06.
Game 2prediction missed23:27
Team Aster 63%Invictus Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 33:13.
Game 3prediction correct30:13
Team Aster 63%Invictus Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 63%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3