DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 21 game
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Rubick
BoBoKa · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 18 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
Doomsignature
DM · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
bzm · 15 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
748 picks · 634 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 534 bans
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1302 bans
Doom
530 picks · 1031 bans
Ember Spirit
456 picks · 1165 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 939 bans
Mirana
437 picks · 224 bans
Techies
432 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:23
Team Aster 43%OG 57%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomXxs
Arc Wardenbzm
Anti-MageMonet
MedusaDM
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Monkey KingYuragi
TechiesBoBoKa
EnchantressCeb
VenomancerFantasy
BatriderTaiga
Game 2prediction missed33:23
Team Aster 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritMonet
Templar Assassinbzm
SnapfireSumaiL
AbaddonYuragi
MagnusXxs
BatriderDM
TechiesBoBoKa
Shadow DemonCeb
VenomancerFantasy
PhoenixTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2