Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Piggy Killerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
Piggy Killer
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 6 games
Disruptor
mercy · 5 games
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
749 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1007 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 950 bans
Doom
393 picks · 623 bans
Undying
386 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 76%
Hero pool strength62% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
Team Aster 63%Piggy Killer 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSumaiL
ZeusXm
DoomXxs
Magnusflyfly
BloodseekerMonet
VisageSrf
TechiesBoBoKa
Spirit BreakerFrisk
Shadow DemonFantasy
Oraclemercy
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Team Aster 64%Piggy Killer 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMonet
Faceless Voidflyfly
VisageXxs
WindrangerXm
Void SpiritSumaiL
MagnusSrf
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
Dark WillowFrisk
OracleFantasy
Enchantressmercy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 75%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2