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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 31 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 26 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
45%

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 30 games
60%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 21 game
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 21 game
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 689 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 332 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
453 picks · 975 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
411 picks · 930 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 861 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 352 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Team Aster 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
58% · 150 games47% · 165 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireSumaiL
48% · 310 games53% · 158 games
Primal BeastMikoto
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
50% · 107 gameslittle data
MeepoJabz
Meepo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKaka
51% · 136 games48% · 211 games
EnchantressQ
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
44% · 43 games50% · 212 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct22:31
Team Aster 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:08:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
45% · 164 games51% · 171 game
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawSumaiL
52% · 253 games53% · 238 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
42% · 105 games49% · 429 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFantasy
56% · 179 games49% · 40 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageKaka
50% · 200 games48% · 23 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2