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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 35 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 23 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
63%
Visage
Visagesignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 25 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 401 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 721 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 478 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
304 picks · 514 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 396 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
270 picks · 855 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 365 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Team Aster 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMonet
52% · 222 games52% · 242 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracOri
53% · 102 games44% · 41 game
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Broodmother
BroodmotherXxs
41% · 46 games46% · 71 game
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
51% · 330 games50% · 361 game
TinyMira
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFantasy
52% · 87 games55% · 72 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed3:24
Team Aster 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 19:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMonet
50% · 44 games44% · 34 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Broodmother
BroodmotherXxs
39% · 28 games55% · 102 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyOri
48% · 239 games44% · 137 games
ZeusTORONTOTOKYO
Zeus
Oracle
OracleFantasy
43% · 17 games54% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
57% · 179 games49% · 143 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2