The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Undyingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 19 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 12 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
LaNm · 10 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
310 picks · 179 bans
Mars
286 picks · 407 bans
Lina
283 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
230 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
216 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:20
Team Aster 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 38:59.
Game 2prediction correct15:38
Team Aster 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 65%
Series resultTeam Undying 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2