Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CHILLAXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 6 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 5 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Excalibur · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 4 games
Juggernaut
Gorgc · 4 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 275 bans
Mars
384 picks · 531 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 501 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 471 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 331 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:50
Team Bald Reborn 38%CHILLAX 62%
The model gave 62% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 43:07.
Game 2prediction correct28:39
Team Bald Reborn 38%CHILLAX 62%
The model gave 62% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 38:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 62%
Series resultCHILLAX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2