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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Pablo · 2 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gorgc · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
5up · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pablo · 1 game
0%

No Bounty Hunter

Rubick
Rubick
ntakii · 18 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 15 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 12 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
ntakii · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 978 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
405 picks · 567 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 707 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 586 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
309 picks · 295 bans
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
299 picks · 206 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
256 picks · 139 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:52
Team Bald Reborn 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusExcalibur
little data36% · 9 games
Chaos KnightkAAN
Chaos Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGorgc
41% · 38 games45% · 44 games
Tinyntakii
Tiny
Mars
MarsRajjix
53% · 130 games55% · 68 games
TimbersawBliNcc
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfirePablo
48% · 45 games60% · 93 games
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
Nyx Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit5up
49% · 119 games48% · 118 games
GrimstrokeFlash
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct41:14
Team Bald Reborn 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightGorgc
40% · 6 games43% · 3 games
Faceless VoidkAAN
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterExcalibur
64% · 48 games45% · 13 games
Tinyntakii
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawRajjix
48% · 37 games48% · 16 games
Dark SeerBliNcc
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
38% · 23 games51% · 67 games
Earth SpiritNARMAN
Earth Spirit
Pudge
Pudge5up
little data44% · 15 games
SnapfireFlash
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct36:27
Team Bald Reborn 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 51:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingExcalibur
42% · 82 games62% · 47 games
GyrocopterkAAN
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierRajjix
48% · 83 games50% · 186 games
Void Spiritntakii
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarGorgc
65% · 16 games53% · 35 games
Centaur WarrunnerBliNcc
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit5up
46% · 115 games49% · 87 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePablo
48% · 115 games53% · 56 games
IoFlash
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 61%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3