Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 9 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Pablo · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 7 games
PSG Quest
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 5 games
Snapfire
OmaR · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Grimstroke
Eixn · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OmaR · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 624 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 494 bans
Bane
437 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
417 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 808 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 389 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 581 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
Team Bald Reborn 49%PSG Quest 51%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorGorgc
Death ProphetNo!ob
VisageExcalibur
HoodwinkOmaR
Night StalkerZipZaper
PugnaEixn
SnapfirePablo
Witch Doctorbengan
Game 2prediction missed21:23
Team Bald Reborn 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautGorgc
Ember SpiritNo!ob
NecrophosExcalibur
HoodwinkOmaR
Dragon KnightZipZaper
PugnaEixn
SnapfirePablo
Banebengan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 51%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2