ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 6 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Dark Horse
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
185 picks · 192 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 389 bans
Dark Willow
181 picks · 76 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
153 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Dark Horse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Team Bright 61%Dark Horse 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightManic
Dark Willowsheep
MagnusIrving
Kunkkaphoenix
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
Game 2prediction missed16:22
Team Bright 62%Dark Horse 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenManic
Phoenixsheep
MagnusIrving
Kunkkaphoenix
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 71%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2