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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Supernovaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
100%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%

Supernova

Rubick
Rubicksignature
sheep · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sheep · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 2 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
594 picks · 624 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
469 picks · 247 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 828 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
379 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 733 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
345 picks · 843 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
344 picks · 765 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
342 picks · 717 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Supernova
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total54% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:18
Team Bright 49%Supernova 51%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Team Bright in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritphoenix
51% · 154 games54% · 361 game
BeastmasterFreeze
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomIrving
51% · 169 games43% · 108 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorUndyne_
52% · 146 games
Game 2prediction correct3:31
Team Bright 49%Supernova 51%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawIrving
51% · 34 games43% · 126 games
MarsFreeze
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritphoenix
58% · 85 games44% · 85 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorUndyne_
62% · 92 games
Game 3prediction missed45:22
Team Bright 47%Supernova 53%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Team Bright in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierphoenix
58% · 49 games48% · 65 games
UnderlordFreeze
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderIrving
52% · 17 games37% · 15 games
Grimstrokesheep
Grimstroke
Lich
LichUndyne_
50% · 14 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 54%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3