ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KBU.USloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 14 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 447 bans
Puck
413 picks · 890 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
307 picks · 364 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team DogChamp 56%KBU.US 44%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 56%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1