Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
Rune Eaters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
859 picks · 604 bans
Tiny
616 picks · 426 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
513 picks · 826 bans
Snapfire
459 picks · 319 bans
Death Prophet
458 picks · 954 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Team DogChamp 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzArk
Rubickani-san
BeastmasterSunlight
Ember SpiritRCY
SnapfireFrancisLee
UndyingBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct27:8
Team DogChamp 57%Rune Eaters 43%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperArk
Earthshakerani-san
ZeusRCY
BeastmasterSunlight
RubickFrancisLee
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 64%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2