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BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Brasilloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Bane
Banesignature
Bloody Nine · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yarintheslayer · 12 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%

Team Brasil

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
379 picks · 584 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 248 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
330 picks · 566 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
249 picks · 763 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 329 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
236 picks · 444 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
217 picks · 331 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 98 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Team DogChamp 57%Team Brasil 43%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenStoneBank
52% · 41 game48% · 140 games
Faceless VoidCostabile
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
47% · 221 game58% · 23 games
AxeTavo
Axe
Marci
MarciITALIANO GANGSTA
51% · 188 games52% · 130 games
VisageFCR
Visage
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
47% · 171 game50% · 291 game
SnapfireKJ
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaBloody Nine
57% · 141 game46% · 178 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed16:28
Team DogChamp 54%Team Brasil 46%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team Brasil in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverStoneBank
49% · 164 games54% · 125 games
LifestealerCostabile
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerRCY
35% · 140 games52% · 284 games
Void SpiritFCR
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsITALIANO GANGSTA
47% · 318 games53% · 65 games
BroodmotherTavo
Broodmother
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
48% · 155 games58% · 260 games
MarciKingrd
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBloody Nine
45% · 205 games58% · 248 games
MiranaKJ
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct53:25
Team DogChamp 55%Team Brasil 45%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenStoneBank
50% · 84 games51% · 109 games
Templar AssassinCostabile
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerRCY
39% · 169 games59% · 92 games
EnigmaTavo
Enigma
Techies
Techiesyarintheslayer
55% · 35 games54% · 279 games
TinyFCR
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleITALIANO GANGSTA
50% · 180 games53% · 135 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBloody Nine
45% · 300 games51% · 153 games
MarciKingrd
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 61%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3