Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 18 games
Tiny
xannii · 18 games
Bane
633 · 15 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Antares · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 9 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 441 bans
Mars
488 picks · 698 bans
Bane
454 picks · 291 bans
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 534 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 624 bans
Sand King
383 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% HellRaisers
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Empire 45%HellRaisers 55%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Empire 45%HellRaisers 55%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 55%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2