Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 21 game
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Iooften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
No Monkey Business
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Bane
antoha · 3 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
MieRo · 3 games
Razoroften banned
xannii · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 268 bans
Mars
372 picks · 517 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 497 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 437 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 501 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:41
Team Empire 58%No Monkey Business 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCooman
Razorxannii
Void SpiritDodren
DoomMieRo
MarsDkFogas
InvokerEgor
MiranaAntares
GrimstrokeGilgir
Pugna[T]SA
Game 2prediction missed10:24
Team Empire 58%No Monkey Business 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerCooman
DoomMieRo
Ember SpiritDodren
Faceless Voidxannii
MarsDkFogas
Sand KingEgor
Keeper of the Light[T]SA
PugnaGilgir
HoodwinkAntares
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 66%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2